We have the dead-cert not to change teams of Mercedes and Ferrari, who will start using different engines at around the same sort of time as we see airborne pigs giving rides to monkeys typing out the complete works of Shakespeare in Aramaic.
Add to that McLaren's switch to Honda power from 2015 and that leaves us with eight potential customer teams for four known suppliers. Assuming, of course, that we don't get a flood of new teams and new OEMs joining the fold.
So who's going where?
In late March, Force India and Mercedes announced a 'long-term' powertrain supply deal beginning in 2014, although the press release didn't define long-term. We can probably assume it means more than two years, though, so if the Silverstone racers are going to switch it won't be in 2015.
Marussia are strongly linked with a Ferrari engine deal, thanks in no small part to Jules Bianchi's presence in the team, and while nothing has been formally announced it does make sense. The only fly in the ointment is their technology deal with McLaren, which might make Honda engines more convenient in some regards, but they've managed to cooperate so far while running different powertrains, so why would the future be any different?
Sauber are unlikely to switch from Ferrari power, despite recent paddock chatter linking the Swiss team with a move to Honda, but that will depend on cost. Honda's engines are expected to be heavily subsidised, while Ferrari have spent much of the past few years complaining that customer engine costs will double under the regulation change. If a new entrant on the market forces the existing suppliers to cut their prices, Sauber might be able to negotiate a very good deal.
Renault are looking like the likeliest destination for a number of the teams. Red Bull have no reason to leave the supplier that has powered them to three world titles, while Caterham's Charles Pic is Renault-backed and gives the British team a very good reason to stay with their current supplier. After running years of Ferrari power Toro Rosso look likely to be moving to Renault, giving the Red Bull juniors experience of the same engines as the big boys.
While Renault currently supply four teams and are in negotiations with five over future deals, company executives have said they'd prefer to return to supplying three teams, which could leave Lotus and Williams out in the cold. Both teams are believed to be on Honda's wishlist of paddock customers, but they are also wanted by Mercedes, who are looking to supply up to four teams.
What makes this interesting is the potential effect Honda's entry is going to have over engine prices. Jean Todt has been subject to a lot of criticism for pushing the spec change through while also trying to reduce costs in the sport. But Honda said yesterday that the new 'green' engine was the driving force behind their F1 return, and it looks like Todt's green engine is actually going to be what drives costs down in the paddock.
Without Honda, and with Renault looking to cut back to three teams, Ferrari and Mercedes were going to have four teams apiece, a captive market who would pay the prices charged. But now that Honda has joined the fray, offering heavily subsidised engines in exchange for all sorts of lovely - and valuable - data, cost-conscious teams have got another option. A cheaper option.
Mercedes have already said on record that their 2014 engine was going to be comparable in cost over the contract period to the existing units, so who this is really going to hurt is Ferrari, who will be forced to cut their prices.
Below is my best guess of how it will all pan out...
Ferrari
- Ferrari
- Sauber
- Marussia
Honda
- McLaren
- Williams
Mercedes
- Mercedes
- Force India
- Lotus
Renault
- Red Bull
- Caterham
- Toro Rosso